Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.682908 3.681300 5.107885 7.370663 1.102069e+01 1.697186e+01 28.104327
2025-03-02 1.571775 2.453680 3.952543 6.891771 1.309715e+01 2.733035e+01 69.858557
2025-03-09 1.121688 1.956905 3.615110 7.608250 1.884801e+01 5.796847e+01 295.175826
2025-03-16 0.822458 1.572369 3.272434 8.215710 2.685514e+01 1.335653e+02 2226.199834
2025-03-23 0.637349 1.323383 3.083623 9.263357 4.153840e+01 4.062954e+02 162524.986726
2025-03-30 0.501313 1.116824 2.877778 10.257833 6.463682e+01 1.647599e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.378840 0.885301 2.448450 9.912250 8.287840e+01 6.338577e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 0.287416 0.695930 2.031275 9.098790 9.732063e+01 2.929431e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.238420 0.604500 1.895478 9.772189 1.528249e+02 3.608473e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 0.207711 0.553808 1.882382 11.471452 3.025598e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.184106 0.515151 1.896552 13.781454 7.036610e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.159417 0.462164 1.807122 15.108415 1.462258e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.132095 0.391493 1.590359 14.584554 2.321644e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.108601 0.326323 1.357977 13.223035 3.030940e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.095944 0.297208 1.305634 14.611946 9.308482e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.084775 0.269543 1.241389 15.773284 3.564234e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.076511 0.250384 1.216210 17.948737 4.330138e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.069071 0.231807 1.180635 20.035648 1.355064e+08 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.060280 0.204358 1.061041 19.091056 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.052241 0.177839 0.930709 17.160711 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.047675 0.165372 0.897414 18.549380 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.044752 0.159346 0.910170 22.272883 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.042343 0.154869 0.933338 27.530974 NaN NaN NaN